North Carolina vs Minnesota NCAAF Picks & Predictions: Run Game Bleeds the Clock
The 2024 college |A|
football season will kick |B|
off in earnest tonight |C|
with the Minnesota Golden |D|
Gophers hosting the North |E|
Carolina Tar Heels. Those |F|
might not be the |G|
most legendary helmets in |H|
the sport, but this |J|
game provides a pile |K|
of gambling intrigue. My |L|
North Carolina vs. Minnesota |M|
predictions will try to |O|
sort through this tight |P|
and active spread as |Q|
I offer free college |R|
football picks for Thursday, |S|
August 29. My |V|
best bet My analysis |O|North Carolina |U|
vs Minnesota prediction
Under 50.5 (-110 |Y|
at BetMGM)
This |Z|
is not a bet |A|
based on weather, but |B|
lets get that out |C|
of the way first: |D|
Thunderstorms are expected in |E|
Minneapolis throughout Thursday night, |F|
bringing with them winds |G|
approaching 15 miles per |H|
hour. That tends to |J|
be the threshold in |K|
which wind impacts a |L|
football game, so that |M|
is of particular note.
But |H| move beyond the weather |J| and focus on two |K| facts. These do not |L| require meteorologists guesses. These |M| are facts.
First of |O| all, Minnesota head coach |P| PJ Fleck prefers to |Q| run the ball. The |R| Gophers ranked No. 12 |S| in the country in |U| the 2023 regular season |V| in rushing more often |Y| than expected given game |Z| state, doing so 8.7% |A| more often than the |B| average team would.
Now |C| Minnesota returns four starting |D| offensive linemen as well |E| as its best running |F| back Darius Taylor, hopefully |G| now healthy after injuries |H| cut short his freshman |J| season. But in case |K| Taylor is indeed injured |L| as rumored, Fleck also |M| added Ohio running back |O| Sieh Bangura, who averaged |P| 4.6 yards per carry |Q| last season. The Gophers |R| will gladly run the |S| ball to start their |U| season.
Your second fact, |V| North Carolina improved its |Y| defense. Mack Brown finally |Z| fired defensive coordinator Gene |A| Chizik, about two years |B| too late into his |C| two-year stint in Chapel |D| Hill. Chiziks 2023 defense |E| ranked No. 91 in |F| the country in expected |G| points added, meaning opposing |H| offenses gained an average |J| of 0.094 expected points |K| every time they snapped |L| the ball. The Tar |M| Heels just let them |O| move closer to the |P| end zone.
Former Georgia |Q| Tech head coach Geoff |R| Collins preaches a simpler |S| playbook, one that should |U| cut loose seven returning |V| defensive starters, specifically a |Y| pair of worrying defensive |Z| ends.
A run-heavy Minnesota |A| offense going against a |B| bettered North Carolina defense |C| should knock this game |D| below bookmakers expectations of |E| 50.5 points, with or |F| without rain. The degree |G| of each of those |H| dynamics has simply not |J| been properly recognized yet, |K| a week-one blessing.
This |L| spread spent the summer |M| with Minnesota favored by |O| 2.5 points. On Sunday, |P| it began to move |Q| and move quickly, eventually |R| jumping the fence to |S| make the Gophers +1.5. |U| Why?
This is not |V| a game with massive |Y| public interest, so it |Z| is difficult to fault |A| late arrivals for the |B| move. With that in |C| mind, injury worries gain |D| credibility. Darius Taylor left |E| practice limping in mid-August, |F| and speculation also frets |G| over leading receiver Daniel |H| Jackson.
The line move |J| makes those look like |K| genuine injuries. Well, that |L| supports our Under thoughts, |M| but it also may |O| be an overreaction. No |P| matter how good Taylor |Q| was in four games |R| as a freshman, how |S| many running backs should |U| move a line through |V| zero? How about second-team |Y| All-Big Ten receivers? These |Z| injury rumors, whether true |A| or not, have created |B| moneyline value on Minnesota.
|C| dir="ltr">And they have also, |D| naturally, led to logic |E| suggesting an anytime touchdown |F| bet on Bangura.
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